Paleoearthquakes of the past 30,000 years along the North Tehran Fault (Iran)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The North Tehran Fault (NTF) is located at the southernmost piedmont of Central Alborz and crosses the northern suburbs of the Tehran metropolis and adjacent cities, where ∼15 million people live. Extending over a length of about 110 km, the NTF stands out as a major active fault and represents an important seismic hazard for the Iranian capital after historical seismicity. In order to characterize the activity of the NTF in terms of kinematics, magnitude and recurrence intervals of earthquakes, we carried out a first paleoseismological study of the fault within its central part between Tehran and Karaj cities. We opened a trench across a 3 m‐high fault scarp affecting Quaternary deposits. Our study shows that the scarp is the result of repeated events along a main N115°E trending shallow dipping thrust fault, associated with secondary ruptures. From the trench analysis and Infrared Stimulated Luminescence (IRSL) dating of fault‐related sediments, we interpreted between 6 and 7 surface‐rupturing events that occurred during the past 30 kyrs. Their magnitudes (estimated from the displacements along the faults) are comprised between 6.1 and 7.2. The two last events – the largest ‐ occurred during the past 7.9 ± 1.2 ka, which yields a Holocene slip rate of ∼0.3 mm/yr. The 7 earthquakes scenario suggests a regular periodicity with a mean recurrence interval of ∼3.8 kyrs. However, the two most recent events could correspond to the two largest historical earthquakes recorded in the area (in 312–280 B.C. and 1177 A.D.), and therefore suggest that the NTF activity is not regular.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".