Female Harlequin Duck Winter Survival 11 to 14 Years After the <i>Exxon Valdez</i> Oil Spill
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT In the mid‐ to late 1990s, nearly a decade after the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, female harlequin ducks ( Histrionicus histrionicus ) suffered reduced winter survival in oiled areas of Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA, relative to unoiled areas. We conducted follow‐up studies from winters 2000–2001 to 2002–2003 to determine whether differential survival persisted and to evaluate whether individual‐level indices of oil exposure were related to survival. Using radiotelemetry, we tracked 138 female harlequin ducks from November through March over three winters. We analyzed variation in survival in relation to season, area oiling history, age class, body mass, and an index to exposure to residual oil based on cytochrome P4501A (CYP1A) induction. We determined that survival was most strongly related to season and age class, with evidence of higher survival in late winter and after hatch year (AHY) categories, respectively. We estimated cumulative winter survival for AHY females to be 0.837 (±0.064) and 0.834 (±0.065) on unoiled and oiled areas, respectively, and we estimated hatch‐year female cumulative winter survival at 0.766 (±0.138) on unoiled areas and 0.758 (±0.152) on oiled areas. Despite persistence of oil in some intertidal areas and evidence of contaminant ingestion by harlequin ducks during and beyond this study, neither area nor CYP1A were strongly related to variation in survival, suggesting that direct effects of the oil spill on harlequin duck demography had largely abated by the winters 2000–2001 to 2002–2003. Our findings offer an unprecedented description of the timeline of effects of exposure to spilled oil and contribute to a body of literature that describe demographic effects of the Exxon Valdez oil spill that persisted over a much longer time than previously assumed. An appreciation for the timescale of chronic effects of oil spills, as well as potential for demographic effects related to much lower concentrations of oil than during the immediate period of acute effects following a spill, will provide wildlife managers with a basis for risk assessment and plans for mitigation when confronted with large spills or chronic pollution.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".