Displacement and education of the next generation: evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, I study the effect of displacement (in the sense of forced migration) of parents during a violent conflict on investment in their childrens’ education years later. Using the ethnic division during the Bosnian War as a natural experiment, I plausibly identify exogenously displaced households and compare them to households who did not have to move because of the war. Displaced parents spend between 20 and 30% less on the education of their children in primary and secondary school. The result also holds for single expenditure positions like textbooks, school materials and annual tuition in secondary school. A number of robustness checks and nearest-neighbor matching is performed to confirm the finding. A decomposition of the causal effect shows that differences in income and the stock of durable goods can at most explain one third of the finding. Potential explanations for the reduced spending of displaced parents on education include altered preferences through the exposure to violence, increased uncertainty about the future, and financial constraints. I25; J15; O15
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".