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Record W2131521508 · doi:10.1115/omae2005-67241

Epistemic Uncertainties in Decision Making

2005· article· en· W2131521508 on OpenAlexafffund
Michael Havbro Faber, Marc A. Maes

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicRisk and Safety Analysis
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Calgary
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
KeywordsEvidential reasoning approachDecision analysisManagement scienceComputer scienceInfluence diagramDecision theoryIdentification (biology)Interpretation (philosophy)Uncertainty quantificationDecision engineeringRisk analysis (engineering)Optimal decisionSet (abstract data type)Decision problemBusiness decision mappingBasis (linear algebra)Quality (philosophy)Decision support systemArtificial intelligenceEpistemologyDecision treeEngineeringMathematicsMachine learningMathematical economicsAlgorithm

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The present paper reviews and outlines the interpretation of uncertainties with a view to the various different categorizations introduced in the literature. A framework is then presented for risk based decision making taking basis in the Bayesian decision theory and recent methodical developments in risk assessment. It is emphasized that in principle all types of uncertainties should be included in formal decision analysis and that not doing so corresponds to informal decision analysis the quality of which may be difficult to judge. The controversial problem in engineering decision making of how to take into account uncertainties associated with the definition of the system being analyzed is outlined. For the typical situation where a discrete set of possible system representations is possible it is shown how a decision problem may be formulated for the identification of the optimal system to be considered as basis for decision making. The presented decision framework takes into account all prevailing uncertainties, epistemic as well as aleatory. Examples related to structural design and assessment problems relevant for offshore engineering are given illustrating how not to account for all types of uncertainties leads to sub-optimal decision making.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Other design · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.945
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.002

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.070
GPT teacher head0.404
Teacher spread0.334 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.

Study designOther design
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations5
Published2005
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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