Predicting Preterm Birth Using Artificial Neural Networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper has three contributions: 1) to evaluate how changing the a priori distribution of the training set affects the performance of a back-propagation feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) in predicting PreTerm Birth (PTB) for obstetrical patients, 2) to assess the effectiveness of the weight elimination cost function in improving the ANN's classification of PTB and in identifying a new minimal dataset, and (3) to determine if PTB can be predicted outside of clinical trial situations using data readily available to the physician during obstetrical care. The ANN was trained and tested on cases with 8 input variables describing the patient's obstetrical history; the output variable was PTB before 37 weeks gestation. To observe the impact of training with a higher-than-normal prevalence, an artificial training set with a PTB rate of 23% was created. Networks trained on higher-than-normal prevalence achieved higher sensitivity rates and greater C-index values, at the cost of slightly lower specificity and correct classification rates.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".