A Role for Effects-Based Planning in a National Security Framework
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to highlight some of the sources of concern that have arisen concerning the concept’s intellectual underpinnings, and from there to suggest a means by which to apply a pragmatic application of the planning tool. By dispelling some of the fanciful notions surrounding the concept and questioning the appropriateness of calling it so in the first place, this paper places the “Effects Based Approach” in a larger comprehensive or whole of government approach to operations. From there, it will suggest an essential framework in which this planning tool can be applied usefully to the domestic and continental operating environment. In doing so, it places CF operations and their desired effects in the broader context of national security and the strategic or “Whole of Government” framework required therein.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.024 | 0.011 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.050 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.012 | 0.017 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.007 |
| Research integrity | 0.005 | 0.008 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".