Temporal trends in non-stricturing and non-penetrating behaviour at diagnosis of Crohn's disease in Örebro, Sweden: A population-based retrospective study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM: The incidence of Crohn's disease (CD) is continuing to rise in several countries and in others it appears to have already levelled off after a period of increase. We updated our previous population-based study, by re-extraction of all information on patients diagnosed with CD between 1963 and 2010. Our aim was to assess temporal trends in incidence, prevalence and disease phenotype at diagnosis. METHODS: Patients of all ages with a potential diagnosis of CD were identified retrospectively by evaluation of medical notes of all current and previous patients at the colitis clinic, Örebro University Hospital amended by computerised search in the inpatient, outpatient, primary care and histopathological records. Diagnosis was confirmed by subsequent evaluation of medical notes. Disease phenotype was defined according to the Montreal classification. RESULTS: The incidence increased over time, especially among Crohn's disease, A1 and A3. SaTScan model revealed a statistically significant high incidence during 1991-2010 (p=0.0001). The median age at diagnosis increased from 28 (3-79) years to 37 (5-87) years (p=0.0002). The point prevalence increased from 21/10(5) (14-32) in 1965 to 267/10(5) (244-291) in 2010. Non-stricturing and non-penetrating disease at diagnosis increased from 12.5% in 1963-1965 to 82.3% in 2006-2010 (p<0.0001). CONCLUSION: The incidence of CD increased over time, although it seemed to be plateauing during the most recent decades. A striking increase in non-stricturing, non-penetrating disease at diagnosis was observed, suggesting earlier diagnosis or phenotypic change. The observed point prevalence in 2010 is among the highest reported.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".