Historical Analysis of Sea Ice Conditions in M'Clintock Channel and the Gulf of Boothia, Nunavut : Implications for Ringed Seal and Polar Bear Habitat
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Sea ice is an integral part of the marine ecosystem in the Arctic and important habitat for ringed seals and polar bears. To study changes in sea ice characteristics indicative of ringed seal habitat (and linked, through predator/prey relationships, to polar bear habitat), we examined historical changes in sea ice concentration and type within M'Clintock Channel and the Gulf of Boothia, two regions of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, during 1980-2000. Results suggest large interannual variability in winter ice conditions over the 21-year study period. In M'Clintock Channel, first-year ice types dominated consistently, while in the Gulf of Boothia, thick ice types dominated in some years. For breakup and consolidation, the regional spatial patterns differed significantly, occurring in opposite directions (N-S vs. S-N) in the two regions. The dates showed considerable interannual variability in both regions, suggesting no clear pattern of either earlier breakup or later consolidation. Analysis of satellite data confirmed the results obtained from digital ice charts. Ringed seal habitat suitability indices (HSI) indicate that both regions contained primary, secondary, and tertiary HSI classes. No trends were evident in the secondary or tertiary classes, but changes in the primary class were evident in M'Clintock Channel over the five-year period 1997-2001. Dynamic and thermodynamic sea ice processes are important to ringed seal habitat (and ultimately, polar bear habitat) at regional and hemispheric scales in the current context of climate variability and change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".