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Record W2133488937 · doi:10.1177/0010414012453032

The Source of Turnout Decline

2012· article· en· W2133488937 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueComparative Political Studies · 2012
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicElectoral Systems and Political Participation
Canadian institutionsToronto Metropolitan UniversityUniversité de Montréal
Fundersnot available
KeywordsTurnoutArgument (complex analysis)Presidential systemVoter turnoutDemographic economicsValue (mathematics)Panel dataCompetition (biology)VotingTest (biology)Political scienceLongitudinal dataPolitical economyEconomicsDemographyEconometricsPoliticsSociologyStatisticsLaw

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Voter turnout has consistently declined since the 1980s across a wide range of advanced democracies. Much of this decline appears to be the result of young people abstaining. In this article the authors test two arguments for this trend. The first rests on the claim that the character of elections has changed, specifically that elections have become less competitive and that young people’s propensities for voting are particularly negatively affected by this. The second maintains that recent generations have different values and that these value differences explain turnout declines. The authors test these two explanations using three different data sets: (a) individual-level and election-specific data from 83 elections in eight countries since the 1950s, (b) longitudinal individual-level and district-level data from British elections for the period 1974–2005, and (c) panel data from American presidential elections. The findings provide strong evidence for the generational value change argument, whereas the authors find scant support for the competition argument.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.826
Threshold uncertainty score0.500

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.275
GPT teacher head0.496
Teacher spread0.221 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it