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Record W2133739242 · doi:10.1080/10273660412331315147

Could Condoms Stop the AIDS Epidemic?

2003· article· en· W2133739242 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.

Bibliographic record

VenueComputational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine · 2003
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicPoverty, Education, and Child Welfare
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Manitoba
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
KeywordsMedicineVirology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Although therapeutic treatment strategies appear promising for retarding the progression of HIV‐related diseases, prevention remains the most effective strategy against the HIV/AIDS epidemic. This paper focuses on the effect of condom use as a single‐strategy approach in HIV prevention in the absence of any treatment. There are two primary factors in the use of condoms to halt the HIV/AIDS epidemic: condom efficacy and compliance. Our study is focused on the effect of these factors in stopping the epidemic by constructing a new deterministic mathematical model. The current estimate of condom effectiveness against HIV transmission, based on the latest meta‐analysis, is 60–96%, with a mean of 87%. Since the parameter estimates are subject to different kinds of uncertainty, to achieve adequate quality assurance in predictions, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are carried out using latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs). Using stability and sensitivity analyses, based on a plausible range of parameter values, key parameters that govern the persistence or eradication of HIV are identified. This analysis shows that the product of efficacy and compliance, which we call ‘preventability’ ( p ), has a negative effect on the epidemic; as increasing p decreases the level of epidemicity. It is also shown that the threshold preventability ( p c ) increases with increasing average number of HIV‐infected partners of susceptible individuals, especially those in the AIDS stage. For populations where the average number of HIV‐infected partners is large, the associated preventability threshold is high and perhaps unattainable, suggesting that for such a population, HIV may not be controlled using condoms alone. On the other hand, for a population where the average number of HIV‐infected partners is low (within a reasonable range), it is shown that p c is about 75%, suggesting that the epidemic could be stopped using condoms. Thus, for such a population, public health measures that can bring preventability above the threshold and continuous quantitative monitoring to make sure it stays there, are what would be necessary. In other words, for populations with reasonable average numbers of HIV‐infected partners, given the will and effort, it is within our means to halt this epidemic using condoms.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.005
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.005
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.136
Threshold uncertainty score0.709

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0050.005
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.077
GPT teacher head0.458
Teacher spread0.381 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it