Effects of thermal model and base temperature on estimates of thermal time to bud break in white spruce seedlings
Bibliographic record
Abstract
To improve the predictability of bud burst and growth of boreal trees under varying climate, the thermal time for bud break in white spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) seedlings was evaluated under a range of temperature conditions in controlled environment chambers. Thermal time requirements were calculated as the sum of growing degree days or growing degree hours above base temperatures ranging from –1 to 5 °C. The results indicated that the common modeling approach, which uses a high base temperature of 5 °C and growing degree days, may not be appropriate for future climatic conditions. Estimates of thermal time requirements using a base temperature of 5 °C varied considerably among temperature treatments and thus would reduce the predictability of bud burst under changing climate. In contrast, estimates of thermal time requirements with lower temperatures closer to 1 °C were relatively consistent among treatments. Growing degree hour models were less sensitive to base temperature than degree day models. These results should help in the selection of appropriate base temperatures and thermal time models in quantification of thermal time for bud burst modeling in other boreal trees.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".