Price Cycles and Price Leadership in Gasoline Markets: New Evidence from Canada
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper studies the determinants of Edgeworth Cycles, price leadership and co-ordination in retail gasoline markets using daily station-level price data for 110 markets in Ontario, Canada for 2007-2008. We find an “inverse-U ” relationship between mar-kets ’ propensity to exhibit price cycles and their size. More concentrated markets are less likely to exhibits cycles and we highlight regional clustering among cycling and non-cycling markets. Within cycling markets, we find brands ’ stations (Esso, Shell, Petro-Canada, Sunoco) lead price jumps and coordinate market prices, while indepen-dents (Ultramar, Pioneer, Olco, MacEwen) aggressively undercut prices over the cycle.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it