MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W2136163895 · doi:10.1093/forestry/cpp001

A Bayesian approach to classification accuracy inference

2009· article· en· W2136163895 on OpenAlexaff
Steen Magnussen

Bibliographic record

VenueForestry An International Journal of Forest Research · 2009
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicRemote Sensing in Agriculture
Canadian institutionsCanadian Forest Service
Fundersnot available
KeywordsFrequentist inferenceQuantileBayesian probabilityPrior probabilityStatisticsMarkov chain Monte CarloBayesian inferencePopulationMathematicsSampling (signal processing)Bayesian statisticsInferenceComputer scienceMonte Carlo methodArtificial intelligenceEconometrics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Bayesian accuracy assessments draw inference about random (super-population) parameters characterizing the classification process and accuracy statistics derived from these parameters. A conventional frequentist approach seeks to estimate the same parameters, but view them as fixed finite population quantities. Both approaches are detailed and contrasted with a real land cover data example. Bayesian results are given for non-informative and informative priors. The latter is justified in past experience. Results from simple and stratified random samplings on overall and class-specific accuracies and kappa coefficients of agreement are detailed for samples representing the 10 per cent, the 50 per cent and the 90 per cent quantile in a Monte Carlo sampling distribution of overall accuracy. A Bayesian approach is recommended for applications with small sample sizes and for quality assurance monitoring where prior data can boost effective sample sizes.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.023
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.072
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.023
Threshold uncertainty score0.121

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0230.072
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0030.002
Bibliometrics0.0060.005
Science and technology studies0.0020.003
Scholarly communication0.0070.005
Open science0.0050.003
Research integrity0.0030.005
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0050.002

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.069
GPT teacher head0.389
Teacher spread0.320 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations3
Published2009
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueForestry An International Journal of Forest ResearchSame topicRemote Sensing in AgricultureFrench-language works237,207