Bibliographic record
Abstract
A new Bayesian tool for nonlinear model fitting has been developed, that employs a parallel tempering Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm with a novel statistical control system. The algorithm has been used to re-analyze precision radial velocity data for HD 73526. For a single planet model, three possible orbits were found with periods of 127.88 +0.37 −0.09, 190.4 +1.8 −2.1 and 376.2 +1.4 −4.3 days. The 128 day orbit, with an eccentricity of 0.56 ± 0.03, has a maximum value of prior × likelihood which is 16 times larger than for the next highest solution at 376 days. However, the 376 day orbit, with an eccentricity of 0.10 +0.05 −0.10, is formally more probable because for this sparse data set there is a much larger volume of parameter space with a significant probability density in the vicinity of the 376 day peak. The previously reported orbit (Tinney et al. 2003) of 190.5 ± 3.0 days corresponds to our least probable orbit. The analysis highlights the need for measurements around phase 0.5 for the 376 day period. Subject headings: Bayesian methods, time series analysis, extrasolar planets: individual ( HD 73526) 1.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".