Accelerating molecular simulations of proteins using Bayesian inference on weak information
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of protein molecules are too computationally expensive to predict most native structures from amino acid sequences. Here, we integrate "weak" external knowledge into folding simulations to predict protein structures, given their sequence. For example, we instruct the computer "to form a hydrophobic core," "to form good secondary structures," or "to seek a compact state." This kind of information has been too combinatoric, nonspecific, and vague to help guide MD simulations before. Within atomistic replica-exchange molecular dynamics (REMD), we develop a statistical mechanical framework, modeling using limited data with coarse physical insight(s) (MELD + CPI), for harnessing weak information. As a test, we apply MELD + CPI to predict the native structures of 20 small proteins. MELD + CPI samples to within less than 3.2 Å from native for all 20 and correctly chooses the native structures (<4 Å) for 15 of them, including ubiquitin, a millisecond folder. MELD + CPI is up to five orders of magnitude faster than brute-force MD, satisfies detailed balance, and should scale well to larger proteins. MELD + CPI may be useful where physics-based simulations are needed to study protein mechanisms and populations and where we have some heuristic or coarse physical knowledge about states of interest.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.015 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".