On the Statistical Interpretation of Site-Specific Variables in Phylogeny-Based Substitution Models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Phylogeny-based modeling of heterogeneity across the positions of multiple-sequence alignments has generally been approached from two main perspectives. The first treats site specificities as random variables drawn from a statistical law, and the likelihood function takes the form of an integral over this law. The second assigns distinct variables to each position, and, in a maximum-likelihood context, adjusts these variables, along with global parameters, to optimize a joint likelihood function. Here, it is emphasized that while the first approach directly enjoys the statistical guaranties of traditional likelihood theory, the latter does not, and should be approached with particular caution when the site-specific variables are high dimensional. Using a phylogeny-based mutation-selection framework, it is shown that the difference in interpretation of site-specific variables explains the incongruities in recent studies regarding distributions of selection coefficients.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".