Federalism and Policy Change: An Analytic Narrative of Indigenous Land Rights Policy in Australia (1966–1978)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. The paper argues that a direct causal role for federalism must link policy makers' actions to costs and uncertainties unique to federalism, those associated with maintaining jurisdictional autonomy. The paper develops a formal model of imperfect information between two government actors, one preferring policy change and the other the status quo. A government chooses to change policy (or not) in a context where two things are uncertain: the stomach for intergovernmental retaliation, and the jurisdictional bona fides of the government in the policy area. The model shows how policy change is endogenous to beliefs about whom courts will support during federalism review. The model is then used in a detailed analysis of Australian cabinet archives at the state and Commonwealth levels, pertaining to the issue of Indigenous land rights policy between 1966 and 1978. Résumé. Le présent document soutient qu'un rôle causal direct du fédéralisme doit lier les actions des décideurs aux coûts et aux incertitudes uniques du fédéralisme : ceux associés au maintien de l'autonomie juridictionnelle. Dans cet article, je développe un modèle formel d'information imparfaite entre deux acteurs gouvernementaux, l'un préférant un changement de politique et l'autre le statu quo. Un gouvernement choisit de changer (ou non) une politique dans un contexte où deux éléments sont incertains : la propension à entrer dans des représailles intergouvernementales, et la bonne foi juridictionnelle du gouvernement dans le domaine en question. Le modèle montre que le changement de politique est endogène avec la perception de qui les tribunaux soutiendront dans un jugement de partage des compétences. Le modèle est ensuite utilisé pour analyser en détail les archives du Cabinet australien au niveau des états et du Commonwealth, relativement à la question des droits territoriaux autochtones entre 1966 et 1978.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".