Probabilistic forecasting from ensemble prediction systems: Improving upon the best‐member method by using a different weight and dressing kernel for each member
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Ensembles of meteorological forecasts can both provide more accurate long‐term forecasts and help assess the uncertainty of these forecasts. No single method has however emerged to obtain large numbers of equiprobable scenarios from such ensembles. A simple resampling scheme, the ‘best member’ method, has recently been proposed to this effect: individual members of an ensemble are ‘dressed’ with error patterns drawn from a database of past errors made by the ‘best’ member of the ensemble at each time step. It has been shown that the best‐member method can lead to both underdispersive and overdispersive ensembles. The error patterns can be rescaled so as to obtain ensembles which display the desired variance. However, this approach fails in cases where the undressed ensemble members are already overdispersive. Furthermore, we show in this paper that it can also lead to an overestimation of the probability of extreme events. We propose to overcome both difficulties by dressing and weighting each member differently, using a different error distribution for each order statistic of the ensemble. We show on a synthetic example and using an operational ensemble prediction system that this new method leads to improved probabilistic forecasts, when the undressed ensemble members are both underdispersive and overdispersive. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it