Cusk (Brosme brosme) and climate change: assessing the threat to a candidate marine fish species under the US Endangered Species Act
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Hare, J.A., Manderson, J.P., Nye, J.A., Alexander, M.A., Auster, P.J., Borggaard, D.L., Capotondi, A.M., Damon-Randall, K.B., Heupel, E., Mateo, I., O'Brien, L., Richardson, D.E., Stock, C.A., and Biege, S.T. 2012. Cusk (Brosme brosme) and climate change: assessing the threat to a candidate marine fish species under the US Endangered Species Act. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 1753–1768. In the Northwest Atlantic Ocean cusk (Brosme brosme) has declined dramatically, primarily as a result of fishing activities. These declines have led to concern about its status, which has prompted reviews under the US Endangered Species Act and the Canadian Species at Risk Act. Changes in distribution and abundance of a number of marine fish in the Northwest Atlantic have been linked to climate variability and change, suggesting that both fishing and climate may affect the status of cusk. Our goal was to evaluate potential effects of climate change on Northwest Atlantic cusk distribution. Coupling a species niche model with the output from an ensemble of climate models, we projected cusk distribution in the future. Our results indicate cusk habitat in the region will shrink and fragment, which is a result of a spatial mismatch between high complexity seafloor habitat and suitable temperature. The importance of habitat patch connectivity for cusk is poorly understood, so the population-level consequences of climate-related habitat fragmentation are uncertain. More broadly, climate change may reduce appropriate thermal habitat and increase habitat fragmentation for other cold-water species in the region; thereby, increasing the potential for regional overexploitation and extirpation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".