The outbreak history of Dothistroma needle blight: an emerging forest disease in northwestern British Columbia, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Native pathogens are normally limited in the damage they cause by host resistance and (or) environmental conditions that limit one or more phases of the disease cycle. Changes to host or environmental conditions can relax these limits and result in disease emergence. Until recently, Dothistroma needle blight (Dothistroma), caused by Dothistroma septosporum (Dorog.) Morelet, has had only minor impacts on native forest trees in western North America. Over the past decade in the forests of northwestern British Columbia, Canada, Dothistroma has caused extensive mortality in managed plantations of lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.), and even mature pine trees are succumbing. We used dendrochronological techniques to reconstruct the temporal patterns of past Dothistroma outbreaks in the area using tree-ring series from sites with documented outbreaks. We found that Dothistroma outbreaks in northwest British Columbia have occurred periodically over the last 174 years, with an increase in outbreak incidence and extent since the 1940s. The most distinct change observed in the outbreak history has been the greater severity and synchrony among the sites affected during the current outbreak. A recently observed climate change trend over the study area may represent an environmental trigger that synchronized the current outbreak causing the widespread emergence of the disease.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".