HIV-1 envelope diversity 1 year after seroconversion predicts subsequent disease progression
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Recent studies have suggested that the dynamics of HIV-1 evolutionary rate reflect the rate of disease progression. We wished to determine whether viral diversity early in infection is predictive of the subsequent disease course. DESIGN: HIV-1 envelope diversity at seroconversion and 1 year thereafter from 89 homosexual participants of the Amsterdam Cohort Studies on HIV infection and AIDS was correlated with clinical endpoints and markers of disease progression. METHODS: Heteroduplex mobility assay (HMA) and sequencing followed by calculation of pairwise genetic distances were applied to determine HIV-1 envelope diversity. The HMA pattern (presence or absence of heteroduplexes) and sequence diversity were each tested for correlation with the clinical course of infection. RESULTS: HMA pattern at 1-year postseroconversion was significantly associated with progression to AIDS and AIDS-related death, with presence of heteroduplexes associated with accelerated disease progression. Moreover, not only this dichotomous measure of viral diversity (absence or presence of heteroduplexes), but also genetic diversity itself was associated with disease course. HMA pattern was an independent predictor of accelerated disease progression, also when CCR5 genotype, human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-type, viral load, CD4 T-cell counts, and coreceptor use at viral load set point were included in the analysis. CONCLUSION: Viral diversity early in HIV-1 infection is predictive of the subsequent disease progression. It remains to be established whether viral diversity itself plays a causal role in the increased damage to the immune system or whether it is a reflection of immune pressure or other selective forces.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.012 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".