Reproduction areas of roach (Rutilus rutilus) in the northern Baltic Sea: potential effects of climate change
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The roach ( Rutilus rutilus ) is a common freshwater fish species in the brackish coastal areas of the northern Baltic Sea. In this study, surveys of roach larvae were carried out at reed-belt shores encompassing the entire archipelago zone in the northwestern Gulf of Finland. A logistic regression model was constructed and then used to spatially predict and map potential roach reproduction areas using a geographic information system (GIS). The results indicate that low spring salinity (<4‰) is the most important factor determining the success of roach reproduction. Reed-belt shores in the inner archipelago with large freshwater inputs in the spring constitute the key reproduction areas. Spring runoff peaks caused by melting snow together with the effects of ice cover on the spreading of freshwater runoff enable roach to reproduce relatively far from river mouths. Nevertheless, 68% of the reed-belt shores in the study area are presently beyond the 4‰ salinity limit and thus unsuitable for reproduction. In the future, climate change is predicted to reduce the salinity of the Baltic Sea, but the potential climate change impacts on roach are partly contradictory. The most likely outcome, however, is a spatial increase in the extent of roach reproduction areas in the northern Baltic Sea.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".