Bibliographic record
Abstract
Probabilistic analysis is a tool of fundamental importance to virtually all scientists and engineers as they often have to deal with systems that exhibit random or unpredictable elements. Traditionally, computer simulation techniques are used to perform probabilistic analysis. However, they provide less accurate results and cannot handle large-scale problems due to their enormous computer processing time requirements. To overcome these limitations, this thesis proposes to perform probabilistic analysis by formally specifying the behavior of random systems in higher-order logic and use these models for verifying the intended probabilistic and statistical properties in a computer based theorem prover. The analysis carried out in this way is free from any approximation or precision issues due to the mathematical nature of the models and the inherent soundness of the theorem proving approach. The thesis mainly targets the two most essential components for this task, i.e., the higher-order-logic formalization of random variables and the ability to formally verify the probabilistic and statistical properties of these random variables within a theorem prover. We present a framework that can be used to formalize and verify any continuous random variable for which the inverse of the cumulative distribution function can be expressed in a closed mathematical form. Similarly, we provide a formalization infrastructure that allows us to formally reason about statistical properties, such as mean, variance and tail distribution bounds, for discrete random variables. In order to in illustrate the practical effectiveness of the proposed approach, we consider the probabilistic analysis of three examples: the Coupon Collector's problem, the roundoff error in a digital processor and the Stop-and-Wait protocol. All the above mentioned work is conducted using the HOL theorem prover.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.022 | 0.034 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.009 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.007 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".