Cyclic dynamics of eastern Canadian ermine populations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Based on partial autocorrelation analysis, 20 ermine (Mustela erminea) populations in Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec demonstrated cyclic dynamics characterized by a latitudinal gradient of decreasing first-order feedback and increasing negativity of second-order feedback. Most of these populations exhibited three cyclic peaks and a 10-year interval of noncyclic dynamics during the sampling period (1915-1940). Changes in ermine density probably reflected those in the density of microtine rodents, their primary prey. Analysis of the limited number of long-term lemming and vole series from boreal North America indicated a latitudinal gradient in cyclic dynamics similar to that of microtine rodent populations in northern Europe. Complex geographic and temporal variation in ermine population dynamics, including cyclic, noncyclic, and shifting patterns of density change, supports the specialist-generalist hypothesis of predator-prey interaction at temperate latitudes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.013 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".