Online identification of hidden Semi-Markov models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Hidden Markov models (HMM) are a powerful tool in signal modelling. In an HMM, the probability that signal leaves a state is constant, and hence the duration that signal stays in each state has an exponential distribution. However, this exponential density is not appropriate for a large class of physical signals. Hence, a more sophisticated model, called hidden semiMarkov models (HSMM), are used where the state durations are modelled in some form. This paper presents new signal model for hidden semiMarkov models. This model is based on state duration dependant transition probabilities, where the state duration densities are modelled with parametric distribution functions. An adaptive algorithm for online identification of HSMMs based on our signal model is presented. This algorithm is based on the 'recursive prediction error' technique, where the parameter estimates are updated adaptively in a direction that maximizes the likelihood of parameter estimates. From the numerical results it is shown that the proposed algorithms can successfully estimate the true value of parameters. These results also show that our algorithm can adaptively track the parameter's changes in time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".