Longitudinal analysis of performance of estimated glomerular filtration rate as renal function declines in chronic kidney disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have assessed the accuracy of equations estimating glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) from serum creatinine in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) in cross-sectional studies. Limited literature exists, however, on the consistency of performance of these equations in longitudinal studies as renal function declines. METHODS: Radionucleotide-measured GFR from 155 predialysis patients with stage 3-5 CKD was compared with eGFR derived from four equations [6-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (6-MDRD), 4-variable MDRD (4-MDRD), Cockcroft-Gault (CG) and Cockcroft-Gault equations corrected for body surface area (CGC)] at baseline, 12 and 24 months. Bias (difference between eGFR and measured GFR) was used as a measure of performance. Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) models were used to identify variables potentially affecting the performance of estimating equations across time. RESULTS: Mean measured GFR (+/-SD) at baseline, 12 and 24 months was 25.9 +/- 10.7, 23.1 +/- 10.6 and 20.3 +/- 10.1 mL/min/1.73 m(2), respectively. There was a statistically significant negative association between bias and GFR for all four estimates (range: -0.76 to -0.71, P < 0.001 for all), indicating worsening underestimation and overestimation at higher and lower GFR, respectively. This negative association significantly reduced over the 24 months (P < 0.001); however, this was largely due to persistent underestimation of eGFR from individuals with GFR >50 mL/min/1.73 m(2). For those with a baseline GFR <50 mL/min/1.73 m(2), the change in bias for any of the four equations over 24 months was <or=1.1 mL/min/1.73 m(2), suggesting relatively preserved performance with time. The MDRD equations showed a sustained advantage in estimating renal function that was more evident as GFR declined. CONCLUSION: GFR estimates are inexpensive and show an acceptable longitudinal performance for monitoring CKD patients with GFR <50 mL/min/1.73 m(2). Inaccuracies appear more substantial above this level of GFR, and care with interpretation is required.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".