From “Restricted” to “Besieged”: The Changing Nature of the Limits to Democracy in Colombia
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract During the last decade and a half, Colombia has witnessed both an improvement in the dimensions of democratic participation and contestation and a severe deterioration in those dimensions of democracy related to effective protection of civil liberties and subordination of the military. While the term “semi-democracy” seems most appropriate to classify the Colombian political regime, the restrictions that made the Colombian regime semi-democratic during the second half of the twentieth century have changed in nature. Between 1958 and 1986, restrictions were placed on the competitive dimension of democracy. From the mid-1980s onward, the regime’s shortcomings stem from the weakness of the state, the emergence of powerful armed actors, and the absence of the rule of law. Seeking to explain this recent process of democratic erosion, our argument hinges mainly on political variables, even as it takes into account the deleterious impact of drug trafficking on the Colombian state, society and politics. At the regime level, we claim that it is no longer the system’s “closed” nature that affects prospects for democratic consolidation, but instead the excessively lax rules of the game created by the political reform initiated in the mid-1980s. This set of rules has engendered additional incentives for party fragmentation, leading to an extremely atomized and personalistic party system. Yet at another level, we argue that the Colombian state has undergone a severe erosion leading to its partial collapse in the late 1980s. This collapse is partial in the geographical sense and also in the functional sense: while some state apparatuses have retained certain coherence and capacity to act, other crucial state branches have either collapsed, have become almost totally ineffective, or have become totally disfigured in relation to their original functions. This “partial collapse” of the state is the result of challenges posed by both guerrilla expansion as well as very powerful criminal organizations (the drug-dealing cartels) upon a state which was historically weak to begin with. Resumen Durante la última década y media Colombia ha experimentado tanto una mejora en las dimensiones de participación y competencia democráticas como un severo deterioro en aquellas dimensiones de la democracia relacionadas con la protección efectiva de las libertades civiles y la subordinación de las fuerzas armadas. Si bien el término “semi-democracia” parece el más apropiado para clasificar al régimen político colombiano, la naturaleza de las restricciones que hicieron al régimen colombiano “semi-democrático” durante la segunda mitad del Siglo XX ha cambiado. Entre 1958 y 1986 existieron restricciones sobre las dimensiones competitivas de la democracia. A partir de mediados de los 80s, los defectos del régimen derivan de la debilidad del estado, la emergencia de poderosos actores armados y la ausencia del imperio de la ley. Procurando explicar este proceso reciente de erosión democrática, nuestro argumento se articula principalmente a partir de variables políticas, aún cuando toma en cuenta el impacto pernicioso del tráfico de drogas sobre el estado, la sociedad y la política colombianos. En el nivel del régimen, sostenemos que ya no es su naturaleza “cerrada” la que afecta las perspectivas de consolidación democrática, sino las excesivamente laxas reglas de juego creadas por la reforma política iniciada a mitad de los 80s. Este conjunto de reglas ha engendrado incentivos adicionales para la fragmentación partidaria, llevando a un sistema de partidos extremadamente atomizado y personalista. En un nivel adicional, sostenemos que el estado colombiano ha experimentado una severa erosión que llevó a su colapso parcial hacia fines de los 80s. Este colapso es parcial en el sentido geográfico y también en el sentido funcional: mientras que algunos aparatos del estado han mantenido cierta coherencia y capacidad de actuar, otras ramas cruciales del estado han colapsado o bien devenido casi totalmente ineficaces o totalmente desfiguradas en relación con sus funciones originales. Este “colapso parcial” del estado es el resultado de los desafíos planteados tanto por la expansión de la guerrilla como por organizaciones criminales (carteles de tráfico de drogas) a un estado que era, en principio e históricamente, débil.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".