Rising incidence of pediatric inflammatory bowel disease in Scotland*
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: An accurate indication of the changing incidence of pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (PIBD) within a population is useful in understanding concurrent etiological factors. We aimed to compare the current incidence and other demographic attributes of PIBD in the Scottish population to previous data. METHODS: A national cohort of prospectively and retrospectively acquired incident cases of PIBD diagnosed less than 16 years old in pediatric services in Scotland was captured for the period 2003-2008; historical Scottish data were used for comparison (1990-1995). Age/sex-adjusted incidences were calculated and statistical comparisons made using Poisson regression. RESULTS: During the 2003-2008 study period 436 patients were diagnosed with PIBD in Scotland, giving an adjusted incidence of 7.82/100,000/year. The incidence of Crohn's disease (CD) was 4.75/100,000/year, ulcerative colitis (UC) 2.06/100,000/year, and inflammatory bowel disease-unclassified (IBDU) 1.01/100,000/year. Compared with data from 1990-1995 when 260 IBD patients were diagnosed, significant rises in the incidence of IBD (from 4.45/100,000/year, P < 0.0001), CD (from 2.86/100,000/year, P < 0.0001), and UC (from 1.59/100,000/year, P = 0.023) were seen. There was also a significant reduction in the median age at IBD diagnosis from 12.7 years to 11.9 years between the periods (P = 0.003), with a continued male preponderance. CONCLUSIONS: The number of Scottish children diagnosed with IBD continues to rise, with a statistically significant 76% increase since the mid-1990 s. Furthermore, PIBD is now being diagnosed at a younger age. The reason for this continued rise is not yet clear; however, new hypotheses regarding disease pathogenesis and other population trends may provide further insights in future years.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".