Rising incidence of pediatric inflammatory bowel disease in Scotland*
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: An accurate indication of the changing incidence of pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (PIBD) within a population is useful in understanding concurrent etiological factors. We aimed to compare the current incidence and other demographic attributes of PIBD in the Scottish population to previous data. METHODS: A national cohort of prospectively and retrospectively acquired incident cases of PIBD diagnosed less than 16 years old in pediatric services in Scotland was captured for the period 2003-2008; historical Scottish data were used for comparison (1990-1995). Age/sex-adjusted incidences were calculated and statistical comparisons made using Poisson regression. RESULTS: During the 2003-2008 study period 436 patients were diagnosed with PIBD in Scotland, giving an adjusted incidence of 7.82/100,000/year. The incidence of Crohn's disease (CD) was 4.75/100,000/year, ulcerative colitis (UC) 2.06/100,000/year, and inflammatory bowel disease-unclassified (IBDU) 1.01/100,000/year. Compared with data from 1990-1995 when 260 IBD patients were diagnosed, significant rises in the incidence of IBD (from 4.45/100,000/year, P < 0.0001), CD (from 2.86/100,000/year, P < 0.0001), and UC (from 1.59/100,000/year, P = 0.023) were seen. There was also a significant reduction in the median age at IBD diagnosis from 12.7 years to 11.9 years between the periods (P = 0.003), with a continued male preponderance. CONCLUSIONS: The number of Scottish children diagnosed with IBD continues to rise, with a statistically significant 76% increase since the mid-1990 s. Furthermore, PIBD is now being diagnosed at a younger age. The reason for this continued rise is not yet clear; however, new hypotheses regarding disease pathogenesis and other population trends may provide further insights in future years.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it