PERSISTENT EFFECTS OF TRANSITORY EXCHANGE RATE SHOCKS ON FIRM DYNAMICS
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recent evidence demonstrates that exchange rate movements can affect firm survival and entry. However, there is little evidence on whether there are asymmetric effects of an appreciation versus depreciation. This article uses firm‐level data over a period of a large currency appreciation followed by a large depreciation to examine possible asymmetries in firm survival and entry resulting in the endurance of exchange rate effects. We find that when real currency appreciations precede depreciations, appreciations reduce firm entry rates to a greater degree than depreciations increase that rate; but appreciations reduce the probability of firm survival at a magnitude not significantly different from the increase in probability that results from a depreciation. Taken together, we find that a 10% reciprocal episode of exchange rate appreciation and depreciation will result in 1,647 (5.2%) fewer firms compared with a regime with no change in the exchange rate. These results are consistent with exchange rate hysteresis whereby a transitory exchange rate shock has a permanent effect. (JEL F1 )
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it