Cirrhosis mortality in Ontario: effects of alcohol consumption and Alcoholics Anonymous participation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIMS: We test the hypotheses that cirrhosis mortality rates are positively associated with per capita alcohol consumption and negatively associated with Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) membership rates. DESIGN: The impact of alcohol consumption levels and AA membership rates on cirrhosis mortality rates in Ontario from 1968 to 1989 were examined. Time-series analyses with ARIMA modelling were applied to male and female cirrhosis mortality rates in three age groups: 15-44, 45-64 and 65 + years. Missing AA membership data were interpolated using two methods: linear splines and cubic splines. FINDINGS: In general, cirrhosis mortality rates were positively associated with alcohol consumption and negatively associated with AA membership. For some age and gender combinations, these effects were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The limits of this study include restrictions in the length of series available and in the ability to infer causality. Despite these limitations, these findings are consistent with previous research demonstrating that per capita consumption is a strong determinant of cirrhosis mortality rates, and also that higher levels of AA membership can reduce cirrhosis mortality rates.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".