Fixation Probability Favors Increased Fecundity Over Reduced Generation Time
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The cornerstone of population genetics is a probabilistic understanding of the ultimate fate--survival or extinction--of rare mutations. If a mutation is beneficial, it enables its carrier to reproduce faster than native wild-type individuals. In classic derivations and in the considerable body of research that has followed, "faster" has been defined mathematically to mean "able to produce more surviving offspring per generation." Many organisms, however, may increase their reproductive rate by producing the same number of offspring in a shorter generation time: a mutant bacterium, for example, may complete the cell cycle and produce two offspring more quickly than the wild type. We find that the ultimate fixation probability of a mutation conferring a shorter generation time differs from that of a mutation conferring more offspring by a factor of 2 ln(2)-nearly 40%. This predicts a reduction in the overall substitution rate for any mutation that decreases the generation time: fixation probability is biased toward increased offspring number.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".