A Bayesian approach to analyze energy balance data from lactating dairy cows
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The objective of the present investigation was to develop a Bayesian framework for updating and integrating covariate information into key parameters of metabolizable energy (ME) systems for dairy cows. The study addressed specifically the effects of genetic improvements and feed quality on key parameters in current ME systems. These are net and metabolizable energy for maintenance (NE(M) and ME(M), respectively), efficiency of utilization of ME for milk production (k(L)) and growth (k(G)), and efficiency of utilization of body stores for milk production (k(T)). Data were collated from 38 studies, yielding 701 individual cow observations on milk energy, ME intake, and tissue gain and loss. A function based on a linear relationship between milk energy and ME intake and correcting for tissue energy loss or gain served as the basis of a full Bayesian hierarchical model. The within-study variability was modeled by a Student t-distribution and the between-study variability in the structural parameters was modeled by a multivariate normal distribution. A meaningful relationship between genetic improvements in milk production and the key parameters could not be established. The parameter k(L) was linearly related to feed metabolizability, and the slope predicted a 0.010 (-0.0004; 0.0210) change per 0.1-unit change in metabolizability. The effect of metabolizability on k(L) was smaller than assumed in present feed evaluation systems and its significance was dependent on collection of studies included in the analysis. Three sets of population estimates (with 95% credible interval in parentheses) were generated, reflecting different degrees of prior belief: (1) Noninformative priors yielded 0.28 (0.23; 0.33) MJ/(kg(0.75)d), 0.55 (0.51; 0.58), 0.86 (0.81; 0.93) and 0.66 (0.58; 0.75), for NE(M), k(L), k(G), and k(T), respectively; (2) Introducing an informative prior that was derived from a fasting metabolism study served to combine the most recent information on energy metabolism in modern dairy cows. The new estimates of NE(M), k(L), k(G) and k(T) were 0.34 (0.28; 0.39) MJ/(kg(0.75)d), 0.58 (0.54; 0.62), 0.89 (0.85; 0.95), and 0.69 (0.60; 0.79), respectively; (3) finally, all informative priors were used that were established from literature, yielding estimates for NE(M), k(L), k(G), and k(T) of 0.29 (0.11; 0.46) MJ/(kg(0.75)d), 0.60 (0.54; 0.70), 0.70 (0.50; 0.88), and 0.80 (0.67; 0.97), respectively. Bayesian methods are especially applicable in meta-analytical studies as information can enter at various stages in the hierarchical model.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.015 | 0.035 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".