ANCESTRAL MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD OF EVOLUTIONARY TREES IS HARD
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Maximum likelihood (ML) (Neyman, 1971) is an increasingly popular optimality criterion for selecting evolutionary trees. Finding optimal ML trees appears to be a very hard computational task--in particular, algorithms and heuristics for ML take longer to run than algorithms and heuristics for maximum parsimony (MP). However, while MP has been known to be NP-complete for over 20 years, no such hardness result has been obtained so far for ML. In this work we make a first step in this direction by proving that ancestral maximum likelihood (AML) is NP-complete. The input to this problem is a set of aligned sequences of equal length and the goal is to find a tree and an assignment of ancestral sequences for all of that tree's internal vertices such that the likelihood of generating both the ancestral and contemporary sequences is maximized. Our NP-hardness proof follows that for MP given in (Day, Johnson and Sankoff, 1986) in that we use the same reduction from Vertex Cover; however, the proof of correctness for this reduction relative to AML is different and substantially more involved.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it