Evidence for a delayed response of riverine phosphorus exports from increasing agricultural catchment pressures in the Lough Neagh catchment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Total phosphorus (TP) exports from the rivers draining into Lough Neagh increased between 1974 and 2000 despite lower TP inputs to the rivers from point sources. Over this period annual diffuse exports of dissolved reactive P (DRP) increased by 238%, from 17 to 57 kg P km−2 with an annual rate increase of 1.6 ± 0.3 kg P km−2 yr−1. Dissolved unreactive P exports increased by 0.4 ± 0.2 kg P km−2 yr−1, but particulate P exports did not increase. Annual exports of these three P fractions were positively correlated with annual runoff. The catchment of Lough Neagh has experienced an intensification of agriculture, with phosphorus inputs of manures and fertilizers to agricultural land increasing from 1,176 kg P km−2 yr−1 in 1925 to 3,823 kg P km−2 yr−1 in 2000. However 85% of this increase predated 1975. Increasing DRP exports after 1974 were better correlated with increasing soil P, and 70% of the increase in P accumulation by soils since 1925 occurred after 1974. Land use remained stable after 1974 with a historically low component of arable (>5%) and a dominance of grassland (<63%). The principal decade of intensification was in the 1940s, but this coincided with a greater arable component of land use. This period predated the increase in diffuse DRP exports. Intensively managed grasslands appear to be vulnerable to high DRP exports, reflecting surface application of manures, accumulation of soil P at the surface, and the creation of bypass flow pathways that facilitate the loss of P from soil to water.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".