Polygenic Type 2 Diabetes Prediction at the Limit of Common Variant Detection
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) may have reached their limit of detecting common type 2 diabetes (T2D)-associated genetic variation. We evaluated the performance of current polygenic T2D prediction. Using data from the Framingham Offspring (FOS) and the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) studies, we tested three hypotheses: 1) a 62-locus genotype risk score (GRSt) improves T2D prediction compared with previous less inclusive GRSt; 2) separate GRS for β-cell (GRSβ) and insulin resistance (GRSIR) independently predict T2D; and 3) the relationships between T2D and GRSt, GRSβ, or GRSIR do not differ between blacks and whites. Among 1,650 young white adults in CARDIA, 820 young black adults in CARDIA, and 3,471 white middle-aged adults in FOS, cumulative T2D incidence was 5.9%, 14.4%, and 12.9%, respectively, over 25 years. The 62-locus GRSt was significantly associated with incident T2D in all three groups. In FOS but not CARDIA, the 62-locus GRSt improved the model C statistic (0.698 and 0.726 for models without and with GRSt, respectively; P < 0.001) but did not materially improve risk reclassification in either study. Results were similar among blacks compared with whites. The GRSβ but not GRSIR predicted incident T2D among FOS and CARDIA whites. At the end of the era of common variant discovery for T2D, polygenic scores can predict T2D in whites and blacks but do not outperform clinical models. Further optimization of polygenic prediction may require novel analytic methods, including less common as well as functional variants.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.059 | 0.093 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".