Discovery of novel plasma protein biomarkers to predict imminent cystic fibrosis pulmonary exacerbations using multiple reaction monitoring mass spectrometry
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Despite the significant morbidity and mortality related to pulmonary exacerbations in cystic fibrosis (CF), there remains no reliable predictor of imminent exacerbation. OBJECTIVE: To identify blood-based biomarkers to predict imminent (<4 months from stable blood draw) CF pulmonary exacerbations using targeted proteomics. METHODS: 104 subjects provided plasma samples when clinically stable and were randomly split into discovery (n=70) and replication (n=34) cohorts. Multiple reaction monitoring mass spectrometry (MRM-MS) was used to measure 117 peptides (79 proteins) from plasma. Plasma proteins with differential abundance between subjects who did versus did not develop an imminent exacerbation were analysed and proteins with fold difference >1.5 between the groups were included in an MRM-MS classifier model to predict imminent exacerbations. Performance characteristics were compared with clinical predictors and candidate plasma protein biomarkers. RESULTS: Six proteins were included in the final MRM-MS protein panel. The area under the curve (AUC) for the prediction of imminent exacerbations was highest for the MRM-MS protein panel (AUC 0.74) in comparison to FEV1% predicted (AUC 0.55) and the top candidate plasma protein biomarkers, including C-reactive protein (AUC 0.61) and interleukin-6 (AUC 0.60). The MRM-MS protein panel performed similarly in the replication cohort (AUC 0.73). CONCLUSIONS: Using MRM-MS, a six-protein panel measured from plasma can distinguish individuals with versus without an imminent exacerbation. With further replication and assay development, this biomarker panel may be clinically applicable for prediction of exacerbations in individuals with CF.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".