Predicting The Occupational Choices Of Foreign-Born And Second-Generation Canadians: Evidence From Census Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, we study the occupational mobility of immigrants and the intergenerational transfer of their occupational status in Canada. The former is done by predicting their occupational choices and examining shifts in those choices as the length of residence in Canada increases, while the latter is studied by comparing the choices of immigrants with those of second-generation Canadians. Of special interest is the role that gender plays in this regard. We use the Schmidt-Strauss (1975) multinomial logit model to explain occupational choice in terms of human capital & other characteristics with additional controls for immigration status, and the length of residence in Canada. This model is estimated using data from the public-use micro-data files from the 2001 Canadian Censuses, and then used in a simulation context to predict the occupational profiles of all native-born, foreign-born and second-generation Canadian men and women in the aggregate, and also of various cohorts of immigrants.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".