PopMod: a longitudinal population model with two interacting disease states
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article provides a description of the population model PopMod, which is designed to simulate the health and mortality experience of an arbitrary population subjected to two interacting disease conditions as well as all other "background" causes of death and disability. Among population models with a longitudinal dimension, PopMod is unique in modelling two interacting disease conditions; among the life-table family of population models, PopMod is unique in not assuming statistical independence of the diseases of interest, as well as in modelling age and time independently. Like other multi-state models, however, PopMod takes account of "competing risk" among diseases and causes of death.PopMod represents a new level of complexity among both generic population models and the family of multi-state life tables. While one of its intended uses is to describe the time evolution of population health for standard demographic purposes (e.g. estimates of healthy life expectancy), another prominent aim is to provide a standard measure of effectiveness for intervention and cost-effectiveness analysis. PopMod, and a set of related standard approaches to disease modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis, will facilitate disease modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis in diverse settings and help make results more comparable.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it