Irrelevance in uncertain temporal reasoning
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the presence of uncertainty, relevance of information degenerates as time evolves. The work shows that this degeneration occurs in probabilistic temporal reasoning. A mechanism for analyzing this phenomenon uses a Markov chain representation and a degree of relevance measure called temporal extraneousness. Efficiency of probabilistic temporal reasoning can be improved by ignoring irrelevant and weakly relevant information. The analysis allows one to identify the portion of event history affecting the time instant of interest. The duration of relevant history depends on the dynamic nature of the system and the chosen relevance threshold. These notions are used to prune time-sliced Bayesian networks which constitute a popular probabilistic temporal reasoning knowledge representation.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it