Observed effects of solar proton events and sudden stratospheric warmings on odd nitrogen and ozone in the polar middle atmosphere
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Here we use satellite observations from the ACE‐FTS, MLS/Aura and SABER/TIMED to study the effects of solar proton events (SPEs) and strong sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) on the middle atmospheric odd nitrogen (NO x ) and ozone levels in the Northern Hemispheric polar region. Three winters (January–March) are considered: (1) 2005 (SPE), (2) 2009 (SSW), and (3) 2012 (SPEs and SSW). These different cases provide a good opportunity to study the roles that transport from the mesosphere‐lower thermosphere region and in situ production due to particle precipitation have on stratospheric NO x levels and the consequent effects on the middle atmospheric ozone. The observations show increases in NO x after both the SPEs (days to weeks) and SSWs (weeks to months) by up to a factor of 25 between 40 and 90 km. The largest mesospheric NO x increases are observed following the SSW in late January 2009, but the most substantial effects in the upper stratosphere are seen when both an SSW and in situ production by SPEs take place (2012), even though the in situ NO x production in 2012 was relatively weak in magnitude compared to periods of much higher solar activity. In 2012, both short‐term (days, due to SPEs and odd hydrogen) depletion and longer‐term (months, due to several drivers) depletion of ozone of up to 90% are observed in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere, coinciding with the enhanced amounts of NO x .
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".