Interoccurrence Times in the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld Sandpile Model: A Comparison with the Observed Statistics of Solar Flares
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A sequence of bursts observed in an intermittent time series may be caused by a single avalanche, even though these bursts appear as distinct events when noise and/or instrument resolution impose a detection threshold. In the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile, the statistics of quiet times between bursts switches from Poissonian to scale invariant on raising the threshold for detecting instantaneous activity, since each zero-threshold avalanche breaks into a hierarchy of correlated bursts. Calibrating the model with the time resolution of GOES data, qualitative agreement with the interoccurrence time statistics of solar flares at different intensity thresholds is found.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it