Milked and Feathered: The Regressive Welfare Effects of Canada's Supply Management Regime
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The production and trade of dairy and poultry products in Canada are controlled by a system of supply management (SM). Output is regulated with production quotas, and imports are restricted through a system of tariff-rate quotas. Many of Canada's trading partners are seeking better access to Canadian dairy and poultry markets in negotiations over proposed preferential trade agreements. These pressures have renewed debate about the future of SM in Canada. We investigate one criticism of SM: that high prices for dairy and poultry products impose regressive distributional effects on Canadian consumers. We apply the Exact Affine Stone Index demand model to data from the Canadian Food Expenditure Survey to estimate consumer responses to price changes for dairy and poultry products. Parameters from the demand model are used to generate welfare comparisons between the current SM regime and a counterfactual liberalized market. Canada's SM policies are highly regressive, imposing a burden of approximately 2.3 percent ($339) of income per year on the poorest households, compared to 0.5 percent ($554) for the richest households. The burden is larger for households with children.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".