The τ Herculid meteor shower and Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The τ Herculid meteor shower has not shown any appreciable activity since 1930. However, it is associated with Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3, a Jupiter-family comet that split in 1995. The fragments will pass near the Earth on 2006 May 13, and could produce an outburst of the τ Herculid shower. However, by considering both meteoroids released during the splitting event and on previous perihelion passages back to 1801, we find no evidence for enhanced activity from this shower in 2006. This is a result partly of the dynamics of the parent comet, which suffers frequent close encounters with Jupiter, and partly of the location and timing of the splitting event, which produces a distribution of meteoroids that does not approach the Earth particularly closely. In fact, we show that the 1930 observations date from one of the few expected appearances of the τ Herculid shower and predict that detectable activity will be produced in 2022 and 2049.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".