The τ Herculid meteor shower and Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The τ Herculid meteor shower has not shown any appreciable activity since 1930. However, it is associated with Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3, a Jupiter-family comet that split in 1995. The fragments will pass near the Earth on 2006 May 13, and could produce an outburst of the τ Herculid shower. However, by considering both meteoroids released during the splitting event and on previous perihelion passages back to 1801, we find no evidence for enhanced activity from this shower in 2006. This is a result partly of the dynamics of the parent comet, which suffers frequent close encounters with Jupiter, and partly of the location and timing of the splitting event, which produces a distribution of meteoroids that does not approach the Earth particularly closely. In fact, we show that the 1930 observations date from one of the few expected appearances of the τ Herculid shower and predict that detectable activity will be produced in 2022 and 2049.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".