Accuracy and equivalence testing of crown ratio models and assessment of their impact on diameter growth and basal area increment predictions of two variants of the Forest Vegetation Simulator
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Diameter growth (DG) equations in many existing forest growth and yield models use tree crown ratio (CR) as a predictor variable. Where CR is not measured, it is estimated from other measured variables. We evaluated CR estimation accuracy for the models in two Forest Vegetation Simulator variants: the exponential and the logistic CR models used in the North Idaho (NI) variant, and the Weibull model used in the South Central Oregon and Northeast California (SO) variant. We also assessed the effects of using measured (CR m ) versus predicted (CR p ) crown ratio for predicting 10 year DG and 30 year basal area increment (BAI). Evaluation criteria included equivalence tests, bias, root mean square error, and Spearman’s coefficient of rank correlation. Inventory data from the Winema and the Colville National Forests were used. Results showed that the NI variant models overpredicted CR when CR m was below 40% and underpredicted CR when it was above 60%, whereas the SO variant model overpredicted CR when CR m was smaller than 60%. Differences between CR m and CR p were positively correlated with differences in DG predictions. Using CR m versus CR p resulted in 30 year BAI absolute percent differences of 10% or less for more than 50% of the plots.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".