The illusion of plenty: hyperstability masks collapses in two recreational fisheries that target fish spawning aggregations
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Fisheries that target fish spawning aggregations can exhibit hyperstability, in which catch per unit effort (CPUE) remains elevated as stock abundance declines, but empirical support is limited. We compiled several fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data sets to assess stock trends in the barred sand bass ( Paralabrax nebulifer ) and the kelp bass ( Paralabrax clathratus ) in southern California, USA, evaluate the interaction between spawning aggregations and fishing activities, and test for hyperstability. Annual and seasonal trends from fisheries and population data indicate that regional stocks of both species have collapsed in response to overfishing of spawning aggregations and changes in environmental conditions. The aggregating behavior of fish and persistent targeting of spawning aggregations by recreational fisheries combined to produce a hyperstable relationship between CPUE and stock abundance in both species, which created the illusion that population levels were stable and masked fishery collapses. Differences in the rate of decline between the two species may be related to the size, duration, and spatial distribution of their spawning aggregations. Results of this study provide empirical evidence of hyperstability in aggregation-based fisheries and demonstrate that CPUE data be used with caution and given low weight when fishery-independent data are available.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it