Patterns and scales of connectivity: temporal stability and variation within a marine metapopulation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Because many marine invertebrates have a dispersive planktonic phase, the spatial scale of demographic, connectivity among local populations remains a key, but elusive, parameter driving population and metapopulation dynamics. However, temporal variation in the scale of connectivity remains largely undocumented, despite its recognized importance for predicting population responses to environmental changes. To assess the temporal stability of metapopulation connectivity, we conducted a large-scale survey of a blue mussel (Mytilus spp.) metapopulation for five years along a 100-km section of coastline of the Gaspé Peninsula, Québec, Canada. For each year, we estimated the scale of demographic coupling among 27-29 sites within our study region, using the spatial cross-covariance between adult abundance and recruit density across sites. Despite large interannual variability in overall recruit abundance, our analysis revealed stationary spatial distributions of adult and recruit abundance. More importantly, our analysis revealed a consistent demographic coupling among populations at a distance ranging from 12 to 24 km in all but one of the five years studied. The scale of connectivity in this system is thus temporally stable, but can occasionally show irregular fluctuations, and our results provide evidence in support of the integration of time-varying connectivity to marine metapopulation and reserve network theories.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".