A Macroeconomic Analysis of EU Accession under Alternative Monetary Policies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This article provides an analytical discussion of the adjustment to EU accession for an economy under alternative assumptions about monetary policy rules. The post‐accession phase is characterized by rapid capital inflows and real exchange rate appreciation. If accession is combined with membership of the euro area and a pegged exchange rate, then the post‐accession period exhibits excessive foreign borrowing, high wage inflation, an excessive stock market boom, and much too rapid growth in the non‐traded sector at the expense of the exportable goods sector. Alternative monetary policies can be used to eliminate the inefficiencies of the post‐accession adjustment, but some bring real costs in terms of lower growth and unemployment. We find that the best policy is one of flexible inflation targeting with some weight on exchange rate stability. In the absence of exchange rate adjustment, fiscal policy could be used, but this requires complicated time‐varying expenditure taxes. While the analytical discussion emphasizes the benefits of exchange rate adjustment, a later section of the article explores some more recent arguments regarding non‐traditional costs of exchange rate volatility.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".