Faecal calprotectin, lactoferrin, M2-pyruvate kinase and S100A12 in severe ulcerative colitis: a prospective multicentre comparison of predicting outcomes and monitoring response
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To compare four faecal markers for their ability to predict steroid refractoriness in severe paediatric ulcerative colitis (UC). Construct validity and responsiveness to change were also assessed. METHODS: This was a prospective multicentre cohort study. Stool samples from 101 children (13.3 + or - 3.6 years; Pediatric UC Activity Index (PUCAI) at admission 72 + or - 12 points) were obtained at the third day of intravenous steroid therapy. Repeated samples at discharge were obtained from 24 children. Predictive validity was assessed using diagnostic utility statistics to predict steroid failure (ie, the need for salvage treatment). Concurrent validity was assessed using correlational analysis with the following constructs: PUCAI, Lindgren and Seo scores, physician's global assessment, albumin, erythrocyte sedimentation rate and C-reactive protein (CRP). Responsiveness was assessed using test utility and correlational strategies. RESULTS: Median values (IQR) were very high at baseline for all four markers (calprotectin 4215 microg/g (2297-8808); lactoferrin 212 microg/g (114-328); M2-pyruvate kinase (M2-PK) 363 U/g (119-3104); and S100A12 469 microg/g (193-1112)). M2-PK was numerically superior to the other three markers and CRP in predicting response to corticosteroid treatment (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve 0.75 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.85; p<0.001) vs <0.65 for the others). However, it did not add to the predictive ability of the PUCAI (area under the ROC 0.81 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.89)). M2-PK also had the highest construct validity but with a modest mean correlation with all constructs (r=0.3; p<0.05). None of the markers was responsive to change (Spearman's rho correlation with change in the PUCAI <0.1; p>0.05, area under the ROC curve <0.65; p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The four markers were greatly elevated in severe paediatric UC. Only M2-PK had good construct and predictive validity, and none was responsive to change. The PUCAI, a simple clinical index, performed better than the faecal markers in predicting outcome following a course of intravenous corticosteroids in severe UC.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".