La Restriction des émissions de CO2 pénalise-t-elle les exportations? Un modèle de gravité avec données de panel et variables muettes régionales
Bibliographic record
Abstract
À partir d’un modèle de gravité en données depanel, nous estimons les effets sur les exportations du contrôle des émissions de CO2d’un pays relativement à ses partenaires. Pour la première fois dans une étude sur la restriction environnementale, le modèle introduit des variables muettes correspondant aux flux commerciaux internes et externes aux groupes régionaux. Loin de pénaliser les exportations, la diminution des émissions de CO2s’avère bénéfique aux performances extérieures des entreprises (1986-2003). Cet effet est renforcé dans un contexte d’intégration régionale. Cela vient conforter l’hypothèse de Porter, selon laquelle la politique environnementale stimule l’innovation etin finela productivité moyenne d’une économie. Les accords internationaux sur le climat apparaissent ainsi comme une occasion de réorienter favorablement les économies nationales vers les technologies et les produits économes en énergie fossile.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.019 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".