Process-based modelling of decadal trends in growth, survival, and smolting of wild salmon (Salmo salar) parr in a Scottish upland stream
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper reports a new model of the freshwater stages of an anadromous fish, at the core of which is a stochastic description of the size-at-age dynamics of a growing cohort. Emigration is assumed to require the individual to exceed a threshold size at a critical time of year, thus making the distributions of survival to, and age at, smolting emergent properties of the model. The model is applied to a long-term data set on juvenile Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) in the Girnock Burn, Scotland, to understand the role played by decadal temperature trends in generating changes in smolt production and age distribution. We conclude that changes in age at smolting are compatible with causation by shifts in the temperature regime. However, the large attenuation between a dramatic fall in spawner numbers and a relatively minor diminution in total smolt production does not result from the physiological effects of temperature but is rather a result of strongly density-dependent mortality between the deposition of ova and the appearance of catchable fry the following summer.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".